⚽ Danilo to Lyon? A Key Decision That Could Shape Nottingham Forest’s 2025 Ambitions
The summer transfer window promises to be a period of transition for Nottingham Forest — and potentially, transformation. After securing their place in the Premier League and clinching qualification for the UEFA Europa Conference League, Forest now find themselves in a new and unfamiliar position: preparing a squad to compete on the European stage while also continuing to grow in one of the most competitive domestic leagues in the world.
While fans might be most excited about the incoming Brazilian trio of Igor Jesus, Cuiabano, and Jair Cunha, it’s the potential departure of Danilo that could prove to be the more pivotal moment of the summer. Reports emerging from Brazil via UoL suggest that Lyon are preparing a £20 million move for the 24-year-old midfielder — a move that was neither expected nor previously hinted at.
This development has serious implications for Forest’s on-field tactics, financial strategy, and long-term squad planning. It also raises big questions: Is this the right time to sell Danilo? Can Forest afford to let him go? And if so, what kind of replacement should they pursue?
Let’s explore this in depth.
⚕️ Danilo: A Season of Frustration, A Future in Flux
When Forest signed Danilo from Palmeiras in January 2023 for £16 million, they did so with significant optimism. The midfielder was seen as a cornerstone of a new, technically adept Forest team, capable of bringing Brazilian flair and energy to the Premier League. Initially, he impressed — notably helping Forest secure survival in the second half of the 2022/23 season.
However, his trajectory stalled almost immediately at the start of the 2024/25 campaign. In a cruel twist of fate, Danilo suffered a broken ankle just 10 minutes into the season opener against Bournemouth, sidelining him for nearly five months. When he returned in January, Forest’s midfield had changed, both structurally and competitively.
Nicolás Domínguez had emerged as a dependable all-rounder. Ibrahim Sangaré, with his physicality and defensive presence, had nailed down the holding role. Ryan Yates, beloved by fans and coaching staff alike, continued to provide energy and leadership. Elliot Anderson, a more attacking option, also began to find his feet.
Danilo, once considered a likely starter, was now on the fringes, often limited to brief substitute appearances and Cup games. He had become a player without a clear tactical identity or fit.
🔍 A Tactical Dilemma: What Kind of Midfielder Is Danilo?
One of the most telling aspects of Danilo’s time at Forest is that — despite his clear talent — he has not yet defined his role in the side. Is he a defensive midfielder? A box-to-box engine? A deep-lying playmaker?
The truth is that Danilo is something in between all of those — and perhaps that has worked against him. He possesses technical ability, composure in tight spaces, and a good sense of positioning, but lacks the elite attributes in any one role that would make him irreplaceable in a Premier League team.
In matches where Forest need to press intensely, Danilo can look sluggish. In games requiring defensive solidity, he’s often outshone by Sangaré. In moments calling for attacking creativity, Anderson or Domínguez provide more.
This “tweener” status has led to a kind of identity crisis, both for the player and for his role in the squad. A fresh start might benefit both him and Forest — but only if the club is prepared to replace his minutes, experience, and versatility effectively.
💷 The Financial Perspective: Profit, PSR, and Smart Trading
In the modern era of football, transfers are not just about sporting value — they are a matter of accounting strategy. For Forest, managing their Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR) obligations is a major part of their summer planning.
Danilo cost Forest £16 million in January 2023.
By now, his amortized value on the books is likely around £10 million or less.
A £20 million sale would represent not only a £10 million+ profit on paper but also generate substantial breathing room in PSR calculations.
That profit would give Forest flexibility to:
Sign higher-profile targets.
Complete deals for the three Brazilians arriving post-Club World Cup.
Strengthen in other key areas (notably at right-back and in wide attacking roles).
This is where John Textor, who has ties to both Forest and Lyon, comes into play. His influence means there’s a degree of cooperation between the two clubs. Last summer, Lyon bought Moussa Niakhaté for £26 million, helping Forest post a sizeable PSR gain. Another deal in that vein would certainly appeal to the boardroom — especially if they can secure add-ons, bonuses, or resale clauses.
🌍 Forest’s European Campaign: The Importance of Squad Depth
For the first time in over two decades, Nottingham Forest are heading back to Europe — a significant milestone in the club’s recent rise. However, this achievement also presents a major logistical and sporting challenge.
Forest will now compete across:
The Premier League (primary priority).
The UEFA Europa Conference League (group stages, then knockouts).
The FA Cup.
The EFL Cup.
That’s potentially over 50 matches in a season. And while Forest have improved their depth over the past two years, the squad remains thin in several areas — especially in midfield.
Selling Danilo without an adequate replacement could:
Undermine Forest’s rotation strategy.
Increase the burden on players like Domínguez and Sangaré.
Leave the club exposed to injury crises in the winter months.
Even if Danilo isn’t starting every week, his presence in the squad is valuable — particularly when juggling multiple competitions. Forest must weigh this sporting need against the financial opportunity.
🔁 If He Goes – What Should Forest Look for in a Replacement?
If Forest decide to sell, recruitment must be immediate and decisive. There can be no drawn-out search or budget panic.
🔍 Ideal Replacement Profile:
Age: 22–27 (experienced but with potential resale value).
Versatility: Able to play in both a 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3 formation.
Attributes: Ball progression, defensive reading, stamina, and composure under pressure.
Bonus: European competition experience or familiarity with English football.
🧠 Potential Targets (Realistic Range):
Jesús Bueno (Philadelphia Union): Energetic, mobile, and intelligent defensively.
Lewis Ferguson (Bologna): Dynamic box-to-box player, adaptable tactically, with EPL readiness.
Manuel Ugarte (PSG): Out of favor in Paris, but highly rated and might be loan-available.
Joey Veerman (PSV): Strong in possession, good set-piece taker, fits the “controller” mold.
Amadou Onana (Everton): Price may be high, but Premier League-proven and physically dominant.
Forest should also explore loan deals with options to buy, especially from clubs offloading players to manage their own books (like Chelsea, PSG, or Bayern).
🔁 Lyon’s Viewpoint: Why Danilo Makes Sense
From Lyon’s perspective, Danilo is a classic smart buy:
Young and still developing.
Technically sound and suited to Ligue 1’s pace.
Potential resale value with a few good seasons.
Under John Textor’s Eagle Football Group, Lyon have increasingly looked to build relationships with clubs in the same umbrella. Signing Danilo gives Lyon a Premier League-quality midfielder at a reasonable cost — and may benefit Forest if a sell-on clause or performance bonuses are structured into the deal.
🧮 Final Verdict: Should Forest Sell?
Selling Danilo would be:
Smart financially if they secure a £20m+ fee.
Reasonable tactically if they have a clearer vision for a more complementary midfielder.
Risky from a depth perspective unless a replacement is secured immediately.
If Forest do not replace him adequately, they may find themselves scrambling in October or November, as fixture congestion bites and their European campaign intensifies.
Ultimately, this is not a deal Forest must do — but if the club view this as part of a wider squad refresh, and they are confident in incoming talent, then a Danilo sale could be the first piece in a smart, strategic summer overhaul.