Danilo to Lyon: Why the Transfer Has Stalled — And Why Douglas Luiz Could Be Nottingham Forest’s Perfect Replacement
📌 Overview
In the world of modern football, transfers are rarely straightforward — especially when they involve multi-club ownership, regulatory restrictions, and ambitious squad rebuilding. One of this summer’s most layered stories involves Nottingham Forest midfielder Danilo, whose move to Lyon has seemingly hit a pause. Despite early indications that the Brazilian’s exit was imminent, talks have now slowed down.
However, this is not a story of collapse — but rather one of careful orchestration, financial strategy, and timing.
As Forest continue to navigate Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR), the club’s transfer strategy hinges on getting both their sales and purchases right. And while Danilo’s exit looks inevitable, the bigger question is: what comes next? That answer may lie in a bold pursuit of former Aston Villa and current Juventus midfielder Douglas Luiz.
🛑 Why Danilo’s Transfer to Lyon Has Stalled
The initial belief was that Danilo would be one of the first out the door at the City Ground this summer. Links with Lyon, owned by John Textor, seemed natural given Forest’s own developing relationship with Botafogo — another Textor-controlled club. It appeared to be a straightforward three-club movement: Danilo to Lyon, Igor Jesus and Jair Cunha to Forest.
But the deal has become entangled in multiple layers of complexity.
- Multi-Club Ownership Politics
John Textor owns both Lyon and Botafogo, and Nottingham Forest — run by Evangelos Marinakis — have been engaged in business with both clubs. Textor reportedly pushed for a future clause in Danilo’s contract that would give Botafogo a priority path to sign him later. Given that Danilo is Palmeiras-raised, the idea of returning to play for one of Palmeiras’ biggest rivals was a non-starter for the player.
This clause became a significant point of contention, slowing down negotiations and leading to a pause in momentum.
- Pending Arrivals from Botafogo
Forest are in the final stages of signing Igor Jesus and Jair Cunha, two of Brazil’s most exciting young prospects. According to The Telegraph’s John Percy, Forest want those deals completed before finalizing Danilo’s and Matt Turner’s exits. This has created a “wait-and-see” bottleneck, delaying the overall flow of deals.
- PSR Constraints & Financial Timing
Forest, like many clubs, are treading carefully around PSR limits. These rules are designed to ensure clubs don’t spend beyond their means. Delaying outgoing transfers until incoming deals are finalized helps Forest manage their financial calendar, ensuring income is recognized in the correct fiscal year and that their summer spend is sustainable.
💰 Financial Stakes: A Balancing Act
From a financial standpoint, Forest stand to gain:
£21 million from Danilo’s sale
£6.7 million from Matt Turner’s sale to Lyon
That’s nearly £28 million in revenue, which could prove crucial to staying within PSR limits.
However, Turner’s sale represents a financial loss. The American goalkeeper, brought in from Arsenal, never found form and was eventually replaced by Matz Sels. Selling Turner now not only frees up wages but clears space for a more reliable backup.
Danilo’s sale, however, is where real value lies. Signed for around £16 million in January 2023, Forest stand to make a £5 million profit — plus the potential to reinvest that money in a more seasoned, goal-scoring midfielder.
🔄 Danilo’s Departure: Tactical Impact
Danilo played a deeper role under Nuno Espírito Santo, often tasked with intercepting play, initiating attacks from deep, and acting as a transition pivot. His energy and work rate were solid, though he struggled with consistency in physical games.
Selling him means Forest will need to find a midfielder who:
Can operate in a double pivot or midfield trio
Offers better attacking threat
Has Premier League experience or the ability to adapt quickly
Represents a step up in quality, not just a like-for-like replacement
This is where Douglas Luiz becomes particularly intriguing.
🔍 The Douglas Luiz Opportunity
🎯 Player Profile
Age: 26
Nationality: Brazil
Position: Central/Box-to-box midfielder
Current Club: Juventus (recently transferred from Aston Villa)
Availability: Loan with £30 million obligation to buy
Luiz had a standout 2023/24 season with Aston Villa, scoring 9 goals and adding 5 assists in the Premier League — career-best numbers. His move to Juventus came as part of a swap deal, but reports now suggest Juventus would be open to flipping him quickly due to financial needs and tactical preferences under Thiago Motta.
📊 Key Attributes
Passing range and vision
Excellent ball retention
Set-piece ability (corners and free kicks)
Good defensive work rate
Leadership and maturity
💡 Why Forest Should Move for Him
- Premier League Experience
Unlike Danilo, Luiz doesn’t need time to adapt. He’s already shown he can thrive in England, and that experience would be vital for a team trying to move up the table and avoid another relegation scrap.
- Offensive Upgrade
Danilo offered occasional attacking thrusts but was largely defensive-minded. Luiz’s goal output, chance creation, and shooting threat are clear upgrades. He would immediately give Forest more control in the final third.
- Tactical Fit with Elliot Anderson
Forest are also pursuing Elliot Anderson, formerly of Newcastle United. Anderson brings energy and vertical running, while Luiz provides balance, calmness, and technical stability. Together, they could form a dynamic midfield pairing, giving Nuno more flexibility in a 4-2-3-1 or 3-4-2-1 setup.
- Manageable Cost
With £21 million incoming from Danilo, Forest would only need to outlay an additional £9 million to secure Luiz on a loan-to-buy deal. This structure is attractive under PSR, as it defers most of the financial impact to future accounting periods.
📉 Risks and Considerations
Luiz’s wage demands may exceed Forest’s current structure.
Juventus could change their stance and demand an immediate sale.
Other Premier League or Champions League clubs may swoop in late.
Luiz may view Forest as a step down from Villa or Juventus, requiring careful persuasion by Marinakis and Nuno.
🔮 What’s Next for Forest?
With the Danilo and Turner exits nearly lined up, Forest must decide how to reshape the midfield. The club has shown increasing ambition under Marinakis, and their activity this summer could define the trajectory of the next 2–3 years.
Possible Midfield Targets Besides Luiz:
Yangel Herrera (Girona) – Underrated box-to-box player
Florentino Luís (Benfica) – Defensive specialist, tactically disciplined
Jefferson Lerma (Crystal Palace) – Premier League proven, physical enforcer
But none offer the proven attacking edge of Douglas Luiz — a player who, if acquired, would represent a statement signing from Forest in a summer full of calculated but bold decisions.
✅ Final Thoughts
Danilo’s move to Lyon may be stalled, but it remains likely. Once the Jesus and Jair Cunha deals are complete, Forest can execute the sale, trim their wage bill, and reinvest smartly.
Douglas Luiz, while more expensive, presents an opportunity to not just replace Danilo, but to upgrade the position significantly.
This is a key summer for Nottingham Forest — and getting this midfield reshuffle right could mean the difference between another relegation battle or a push toward the top half of the Premier League table.