Wolves have endured a truly difficult and challenging start to the 2025/26 Premier League season, one that has left fans, analysts, and the club’s hierarchy with plenty of concerns and questions about what lies ahead. After six rounds of fixtures, Wolves have only managed to secure a solitary point — a stark and disappointing statistic for a club hoping to establish itself firmly in the Premier League following promotion. The struggle to pick up points, combined with the way some of the matches have unfolded, paints a picture of a team that is still searching for its identity and consistency at this elite level.
The recent fixture against Tottenham Hotspur was emblematic of the kind of season Wolves have been enduring so far. Santiago Bueno’s goal in the second half offered a much-needed spark and raised hopes among supporters that a victory was within reach. For a significant portion of the match, Wolves appeared disciplined, organized, and tactically astute. Manager Vitor Pereira’s decision to adapt defensive setups — alternating between a back four and a back five — seemed to be paying off, with the team showing much better defensive cohesion and the ability to nullify Tottenham’s attacking threats. This was a significant improvement compared to earlier fixtures where defensive chaos and lapses often undermined Wolves’ efforts.
However, the heartbreak came in the dying seconds of the match when Joao Palhinha unleashed a powerful strike from the edge of the box in the 94th minute, snatching victory away from Wolves in a cruel twist of fate. Such late defeats can be psychologically damaging for any team, particularly one already struggling to find confidence and form. It underscores how fine the margins are in the Premier League and how moments of brilliance or error can define entire matches and, by extension, seasons.
Yet, despite these setbacks, there are tangible signs that Wolves are moving in the right direction tactically and mentally. The tactical flexibility shown by Pereira — shifting from a traditional back five to also incorporating a back four when needed — has provided Wolves with a better defensive balance and more options depending on the opposition. Central defensive partnerships have been a focal point of this improvement. The combination of Santiago Bueno and Ladislav Krejci at the heart of the defense has brought a more composed and disciplined approach, limiting the kinds of defensive errors that plagued Wolves earlier in the campaign. If this partnership continues to grow in understanding and confidence, it could serve as a vital foundation for the club to build on.
However, despite these encouraging tactical shifts and moments of promise, the statistical and predictive outlook for Wolves remains worrying. The highly respected sports data analysis company Opta uses sophisticated supercomputer simulations — running tens of thousands of iterations based on current form, fixtures, player performance, injuries, and other factors — to generate projected end-of-season tables and relegation probabilities. Before the season began, Opta projected Wolves to finish 17th, narrowly avoiding relegation but still battling near the bottom of the table. This projection was cautious but optimistic relative to the club’s recent history.
Unfortunately, as the season has unfolded and Wolves’ results have failed to improve, Opta’s projections have shifted downward. After just three games, following a narrow 3-2 defeat to Everton and other poor results, the prediction dropped Wolves to 18th place, with an expected points tally of 36.92 — still avoiding the drop but barely. And now, after six rounds of the Premier League campaign, the latest data from Opta has cast Wolves as the team most likely to be relegated, projecting them to finish rock bottom (20th) with just 33.88 points. This is a significant drop in expectations, and it reflects the reality of Wolves’ struggles so far.
Perhaps most alarmingly, the supercomputer estimates Wolves’ probability of relegation this season at 61.73% — well over half — signaling that the data suggests relegation is the most likely outcome given current trends and fixtures. Close behind Wolves in this grim prognosis are Burnley (projected 19th with 34.09 points) and West Ham United (18th with 38.05 points), which means Wolves are seen as the weakest team in the division at this point in time.
There are a number of factors contributing to this bleak outlook beyond Wolves’ immediate results. One major dynamic in this season’s Premier League is the surprisingly strong performances of newly promoted teams, specifically Sunderland and Leeds United. Both clubs have made very good starts, collecting valuable points and demonstrating that they are more than capable of competing at this level. Gary O’Neil, Wolves’ assistant manager, highlighted this competitive threat after the Spurs draw, pointing out that these promoted sides are adding another layer of difficulty for Wolves in their relegation battle. The rise of these teams compresses the lower half of the table, making it harder for Wolves to carve out breathing space.
For Wolves fans, this is understandably a worrying scenario. Relegation to the Championship would have profound sporting, financial, and emotional consequences. It would not only disrupt the club’s progress and ambitions but also likely lead to a reshuffling of the squad, potential managerial changes, and the challenge of rebuilding. The stakes could not be higher.
However, amid this challenging landscape, there is still room for cautious optimism. Wolves have shown glimpses of quality and resilience, particularly in their last two matches where the defense has been more stable and the team has looked more organized. This recent improvement in defensive solidity, centered around Bueno and Krejci, is critical. Premier League survival is often built on the ability to keep clean sheets or limit damage in games, especially when a team is struggling to score regularly. If Wolves can continue to tighten their defense, avoid late collapses like the one against Spurs, and convert draws into wins or narrow losses into draws, their chances of climbing out of the relegation zone will improve significantly.
Manager Vitor Pereira’s tactical adaptability will be key in this regard. His willingness to alter formations, adjust player roles, and find solutions to the team’s problems is encouraging. Wolves will also need contributions from key players — both in terms of leadership on the pitch and crucial goals or assists. The team’s midfield creativity and attacking threat will have to be sharpened to complement the improved defensive organization.
Looking ahead, Wolves face a somewhat kinder run of fixtures on paper over the next few weeks, which could present an opportunity to rack up points and build momentum. However, every match remains a test, and complacency cannot be afforded. Confidence is a fragile commodity, especially for a team battling near the bottom, so Wolves must capitalize on these opportunities quickly.
Another aspect to consider is the psychological and emotional state of the squad. Early-season defeats, close losses, and the pressure of relegation battles can weigh heavily on players and staff. Maintaining belief, focus, and a positive team spirit will be essential. Wolves’ ability to bounce back from setbacks and show resilience in tough moments can define their season.
In addition, the club’s leadership and support staff will have an important role in managing the squad’s morale, fitness, and preparation for the demanding months ahead. Injuries, suspensions, and squad depth will also factor into Wolves’ ability to navigate the season.
In conclusion, Wolves find themselves in a precarious and challenging position after six rounds of the Premier League campaign. The data-driven projections from Opta paint a bleak picture, with relegation now the most likely outcome according to simulations. However, Wolves have shown signs of progress, particularly in their defensive setup and tactical flexibility under Vitor Pereira. The improved partnership between Santiago Bueno and Ladislav Krejci provides a glimmer of hope that the team can become more defensively resolute, which is crucial for survival.
The coming weeks will be pivotal. Wolves must build on recent improvements, capitalize on supposedly easier fixtures, and maintain mental toughness to avoid slipping into a relegation spiral. The competition at the bottom is fierce, with newly promoted teams like Sunderland and Leeds adding to the pressure. Wolves will need all their resources — tactical, physical, and psychological — to navigate this perilous stretch.
Ultimately, football is unpredictable, and while statistics provide valuable insights, the human element of determination, teamwork, and tactical ingenuity can overturn expectations. Wolves’ fans will be hoping that their team can harness these factors to defy the odds and secure Premier League survival for another season.