The San Antonio Spurs are rolling in the 2025-26 season, blending elite youth with veteran savvy. Victor Wembanyama anchors the defense and offense with his otherworldly size and skill, while De’Aaron Fox has injected speed, playmaking, and scoring punch into the backcourt alongside rising stars like Stephon Castle and rookie Dylan Harper. Recent wins, including strong performances against teams like the Hornets and Rockets, highlight a surging squad that looks built for sustained contention.
Yet, as the NBA inches toward potential expansion, an “ugly” long-term reality could loom for the franchise—particularly around Fox. Commissioner Adam Silver has indicated a decision on adding two new teams (with Seattle and Las Vegas as heavy favorites) could come sometime in 2026, potentially leading to new franchises debuting as early as the 2027-28 season.
This would trigger an expansion draft, forcing every existing team to protect only eight players (a standard rule from past expansions, such as the 2004 Charlotte Bobcats draft). The rest of the roster becomes eligible for selection by the new teams, with each expansion squad typically allowed to pick one player per existing franchise.
The Spurs’ Protection Dilemma
San Antonio’s current core and supporting cast make the eight-player limit painful. Key names likely in the protection conversation include:
- Victor Wembanyama (untouchable superstar)
- De’Aaron Fox
- Stephon Castle (2024 first-rounder showing All-Defense and scoring upside)
- Dylan Harper (2025 No. 2 overall pick, already flashing star potential as a dynamic guard)
- Devin Vassell
- Keldon Johnson
- Role players like Julian Champagnie, Luke Kornet, or Carter Bryant
- Future first-round picks (where applicable under draft rules)
Even with strategic decisions—such as potentially letting Johnson walk in free agency, re-signing Champagnie on a modest deal, or riding out Vassell’s contract—the Spurs could still face a logjam exceeding eight protections. Younger, cost-controlled talent and Wemby would take priority, but that leaves tough calls on veterans.
Why Fox Could Become the Odd Man Out
Fox, acquired via trade from the Sacramento Kings in early 2025 and fresh off a four-year, roughly $229 million maximum extension (kicking in soon and paying him around $50-55 million annually in later years), is playing well at age 28. He adds elite speed and facilitation that complements Wembanyama’s gravity. The duo has powered strong win rates when healthy, helping the Spurs look like a legitimate Western Conference threat.
However, the financial picture darkens quickly. Wembanyama will eventually command a supermax extension. If Castle (and potentially Harper) develop into max-level players and earn rookie-scale extensions, the cap sheet becomes extremely tight. Fox’s incoming salary—while justified now—may not age as a “true max” contributor on a dynasty-level roster, especially if the Spurs prioritize youth and flexibility.
Trading him later could prove messy. A $50M+ annual deal might deter suitors unless San Antonio attaches assets or accepts negative value, limiting future maneuverability. An expansion draft offers a potential “clean out”: by leaving Fox unprotected, the Spurs could shed his salary without a trade, gaining roster spots and cap relief while the new teams absorb the risk.
This isn’t about Fox declining sharply—he’s still in his prime and performing—but about roster math in a superteam-building era. The Spurs’ window with him as a centerpiece may be shorter than hoped if the young core (Wemby, Castle, Harper) fully blossoms into a championship nucleus.
Broader Implications for the Spurs and NBA
Expansion would add excitement—reviving the Sonics in Seattle and bringing pro basketball back to Las Vegas in a big way—but it disrupts established teams. The Spurs, already navigating the post-Popovich era with Mitch Johnson at the helm, must balance short-term contention with long-term construction.
For now, the focus remains on the court: Wembanyama’s blocks and scoring, Fox’s burst unlocking the offense, and the young guards’ growth. Recent streaks show this group can “steamroll” opponents. But smart front-office planning, including expansion-draft strategy, could prove as important as on-court execution.
The NBA’s last expansion was over two decades ago. If Seattle and Las Vegas join by the late 2020s, every franchise—including the surging Spurs—will face hard choices. For San Antonio, protecting the future might mean exposing a key piece of the present in De’Aaron Fox. It’s a pragmatic, if uncomfortable, reality in a league always evolving.
This piece draws on current roster trends, contract details, and expansion reporting as of March 2026. The situation remains fluid pending the NBA’s 2026 decision.